Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 13.742710 15.725801 17.863826 20.336447 23.113313 26.131560 29.656482
2025-03-02 10.935050 13.644140 16.792107 20.704760 25.420677 30.903745 37.742709
2025-03-09 9.341379 12.327776 15.969182 20.706974 26.676009 33.911451 43.306808
2025-03-16 8.035333 11.156138 15.129923 20.515341 27.570867 36.441020 48.368649
2025-03-23 7.179589 10.415357 14.692041 20.693231 28.820104 39.355030 53.940298
2025-03-30 6.651231 10.036333 14.661797 21.355750 30.688721 43.115540 60.761513
2025-04-06 5.940975 9.314196 14.074230 21.170217 31.342754 45.236141 65.442138
2025-04-13 5.089087 8.291697 12.959083 20.125306 30.685008 45.472095 67.486852
2025-04-20 4.761269 8.017559 12.895498 20.574711 32.155706 48.716254 73.857314
2025-04-27 4.456890 7.745863 12.803817 20.957825 33.527105 51.858367 80.200919
2025-05-04 4.072019 7.305847 12.411797 20.840770 34.119702 53.866859 84.953312
2025-05-11 3.693327 6.838164 11.934123 20.544357 34.399563 55.396803 89.031475
2025-05-18 3.416470 6.524111 11.689319 20.616297 35.279478 57.910161 94.773047
2025-05-25 3.196387 6.288417 11.554567 20.854995 36.433215 60.895131 101.375269
2025-06-01 2.965988 6.010132 11.321207 20.902655 37.261787 63.386422 107.286889
2025-06-08 2.716779 5.672434 10.956126 20.694098 37.641901 65.164739 112.125201
2025-06-15 2.552116 5.477861 10.826394 20.878610 38.681290 68.036402 118.818966
2025-06-22 2.469934 5.435191 10.966064 21.544641 40.573373 72.378047 128.075110
2025-06-29 2.278550 5.156770 10.647907 21.358244 40.960945 74.221445 133.261943
2025-07-06 1.996693 4.665450 9.888916 20.304755 39.743265 73.284802 133.729973
2025-07-13 1.919148 4.594437 9.933185 20.757833 41.257022 77.077260 142.360754
2025-07-20 1.838981 4.510061 9.943825 21.143991 42.661967 80.730215 150.880754
2025-07-27 1.711156 4.308602 9.704222 21.026008 43.118639 82.727427 156.587306